Emanuel Winston is the Freeman Center's Middle East analyst. He has published over 2500 articles and given hundreds of radio and television interviews and has been a major supporter of Israeli institutions of higher learning for over two decades.
Tue Jan 31, 2006 4:55 am EARLY TERMINATION TO WORLD THREATS BY IRAN
EARLY TERMINATION TO WORLD THREATS BY IRAN
By Emanuel A. Winston, Middle East Analyst & Commentator
January 31, 2006
If the West had possessed the foresight to bomb Adolph Hitler and his Generals at the earliest possible time, think of how many lives would have been saved. (Over 50 million!) Opportunities presented themselves when they gathered together, which always occurred on important occasions. Granted, at the time, few believed that Hitler would successfully invade and take over Europe to start his self-proclaimed plans to commit Genocide of all the European Jews. In the late 1930s and early 1940s we did not yet have long range missile and nuclear weapons. If we did, one nuclear bomb would have saved Europe and the 50 million people killed in Hitler‚s World War 2. That experience is behind us and, hopefully, the lessons learned.
We now face a budding Hitler in Iran who has plainly threatened Israel with elimination. But, President Mahmoud Ahmanidejad and the Ayatollahs know it cannot stop there. His threat spreads as a ripple in a global pond which can reach America and Europe with their long range missiles, soon to be capped with nuclear warheads. (Iran is expected to test a nuclear weapon as soon as 2006.) Note! Many analysts believe Iran purchased nuclear warheads on the black market in East Germany when the Soviet Union collapsed. With the head long rush to achieve nuclear capability there is always the possibility of a nuclear accident as happened in Chernobyl. Only then would the U.N.‚s Security Council accelerate their foot-dragging and try to implement sanctions....too late!
Analysts in America are concerned that Iran could launch a nuclear missile from a ship to explode over the U.S. The EMP (ElectroMagnetic Pulse) caused by a nuclear explosion would destroy all computer-driven mechanisms from planes to automobiles, banks, and everything run by computers in our civilization.
No doubt, you are thinking that IF Iran could reach this capability (or already has), why not do it to them first? We have this capability now and could stop everything electrical in Iran with several well-placed nuclear air outbursts. Once crippled electronically, a message would be delivered via leaflets to the effect of "Stand down your nuclear development immediately or our next salvo will target your nuclear development facilities with ground bursts." This message would also be delivered to Iran‚s military commanders indicating that the nation would require their services to maintain order until a civilian government could be formed. Moreover, the message would continue: "If even one missile is seen lifting off, Iran would be reduced to cinders."
Such a message was delivered to Iraq‚s military commanders regarding the stock of chemical artillery shells and missiles prior to the U.S. invasion in January 1991 - Saddam did NOT use the chemical or biological weapons he was known to possess.
As mentioned earlier, a well timed strike on Iran‚s radical leadership would return the nation to its people and eliminate a future conflagration.
We could have stopped Hitler early in his plans to create the 1000 year Third Reich and World Conquest. We may or may not have learned the lesson of terminating dictators in the early stages of development. Once, before nuclear weapons, we could practice restraint or plan on limited conventional wars but, no more.
Will the nations act before they are threatened with nuclear devastation by a nation and religious leaders who welcome death as a tactic to bring them the blessings and pleasures of Allah‚s warrior heaven.
Israel, while a key first target, is worrying about what the nations will think. Will they get angry, if we (Israel) destroy Iran‚s nuclear capacity? If Israel attempts such a spectacular and dangerous assault, it would (like the destroying Iraq‚s nuclear factory in Osirak) serve to protect all the rest of the world‚s nations. Of course, the world‚s duplicitous nations would condemn Israel‚s attacks as they did when she hit Iraq‚s nuclear plant - while secretly rejoicing that it was done.
One is often reminded of the joke‚ about the two Jews standing before a firing squad. When asked if they wanted a blindfold, one says "Go to Hell!" The other Jew says, "Shut up, do you want to make them mad?!"
Is Israel‚s leadership simply too weak and dependent on the self-serving orders coming from Washington‚s State Department? Even if Israel risks being turned into radio-active dust by waiting, they are more concerned with angering Washington and the Europeans who, in turn, do not wish to anger the Muslim Arab nations. It is a sick daisy chain of dimwits, each pandering to others - even as they risk their own populations.
Regrettably, nations like Russia and China have a deep financial vested interest in Iran and are already telling the U.N. and U.S. that, regardless of Iran‚s refusal to cease its nuclear development, they will act to stop any sanctions. Therefore, in the end America and Israel will have to act alone.
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Powerful 5 want Iran referred to IAEA 1/31/2006 12:36:23 PM IST
In a move that could further escalate the global geo-political tension, all the five permanent members of the UN Security Council have reached an agreement to refer Iran to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), for its alleged nuclear ambitions.
In a surprising development, China and Russia, both of which have close ties with Iran, signed on the accord that calls on the UN nuclear watchdog to transfer Tehran's nuclear dossier to the Security Council, which could then take some action against the Islamic nation.
The foreign ministers of the five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Germany's foreign minister, agreed that IAEA should report to the Security Council its decision on the steps to be taken against Iran, a statement released by the U.S. said.
The ministers in their joint statement called on Iran to restore the full suspension of enrichment-related activity, including R&D under the supervision of IAEA.
They also agreed that the UN Security Council should wait until another IAEA Board of Governors meeting on March 6 before announcing any formal action against Iran. All parties are free to talk to Iran in the interim period.
The IAEA is scheduled to hold an emergency session, starting Thursday, to discuss possible punitive measures against Iran's decision last month, to re-start its uranium enrichment activity.
The EU and the U.S. suspect that Iran is planning to build an atomic bomb and want assurances from Tehran that the nuclear program is for civilian purposes. Iran warned on January 19 of a global oil crisis if IAEA imposes sanctions against it.
Meanwhile, India is in a bind over whether to vote against Iran in the February 2-3 meeting of IAEA. Ideally New Delhi would prefer to avoid a vote, or abstain from taking part in the process, given the pressure from the Left parties. However, with the upcoming visit of U.S. President George W. Bush and the ratification to the nuclear deal with Washington still pending, it will be a tough choice for India.
Separately, crude oil prices fell as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Country (OPEC) looked all set to keep output near a 25-year high. However, prices remained above US$68 per barrel as international pressure grew on Iran over its nuclear program. U.S. light crude slipped 10 cents to $68.25 a barrel after climbing 59 cents a barrel on Monday. London Brent crude lost 15 cents at $66.44 a barrel.
By GEORGE JAHN Associated Press Writer
The Associated Press
VIENNA, Austria Feb 2, 2006 — Iran's chief nuclear negotiator told the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Thursday that his country would severely curtail the agency's inspections of Tehran's atomic program and resume uranium enrichment if referred to the Security Council.
The warning to IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei from Ali Larijani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, was contained in a letter made available to The Associated Press.