A Lebanese fig leaf

By Dr. Mordechai Kedar

October 8, 2002

The work the Lebanese government is doing along the Hatzbani River to prevent the waters of the Wazzani spring from reaching Israel is undoubtedly proceeding with prior approval from Syria. Damascus assured Lebanon in advance that it would provide political and military cover for a project that affects what is one of the most sensitive issues for Israel, water. This provocation was meant to reawaken the Israeli-Lebanese front after the Israeli withdrawal delegitimized Syria's sponsorship of continued fighting in south Lebanon.

However, the Wazzani episode has a direct impact on the future of the Golan Heights. Because of Syria and Lebanon's handling of this important water source, no sane Israeli, not even a diehard peace advocate, will agree to withdraw from the Golan Heights, and thereby provide Syria with the option of diverting, yet again, the waters of the Banias River, controlling the Yarmuk River descent or even overlooking Lake Kinneret. Syria's failure to take into account international rules that apply to countries located along a river undermines whatever confidence a few Israelis may have in a Syrian commitment to the framework of a peace treaty covering water issues, thinning of forces or demilitarizing certain areas. The world's silence in the face of the actions of the Lebanese and Syrians eliminates the possibility of Israel's relying on a kind of international guarantee to ensure that Syria upholds its obligations under a peace treaty.

So Lebanon and Syria's actions along the Hatzbani River lessen the chances of Israel Zever returning the Golan to Syria. Have the Syrian decision-makers completely overlooked these considerations? Probably not. It seems that they have assessed the situation in Israel, in the region and in the international arena, and concluded that the Golan Heights will not be returned to them in the foreseeable future. They have observed the developments affecting the Israeli public, which has turned sharply to the right over the last two years; they realize that reinforcing ties with Iraq reduces in the eyes of the Israelis the chance that Syria will strive for peace with Israel; and they know that Israel is unwilling to take risks, even if they are backed by international guarantees. Given these three points, they have concluded that no further damage will be caused if they establish a new point of friction that will drain our blood at a slow pace, and therefore, will not allow for wide-scale retaliatory measures. Moreover, renewed fighting in Lebanon will provide the Syrians with an opportunity, once again, to make its cessation contingent on a tripartite Israeli-Lebanese-Syrian agreement that will include evacuation of the Golan, and so they will keep the problem of the Golan Heights alive and in the international consciousness.

Once again, the Syrians will utilize the desire of Hezbollah veterans to go back and fight Israel. Except that underlying all this is a basic fact of which many are unaware: the Syrians really could not care less about the Lebanese. Syria sees Lebanon's residents as hedonistic, corrupt and traitorous and that is true of Hezbollah as well. Syria is willing to fight Israel down to the last drop of blood of the last Lebanese. The waters of the Hatzbani are merely the Lebanese fig leaf intended to cover up Syria's deceitful intentions. From the renewed fighting on the banks of the Hatzbani River, Syria will reap multilateral gain: once again it will shed Israeli blood, be portrayed as the real fighter for the restoration of the Arabs' rights, and make the restoration of quiet on the Israel-Lebanon border contingent on an agreement with Damascus for the return of the Golan Heights.

The only conclusion to be drawn, therefore, is: Israel must publicly warn Syria that Lebanon's pumping of the Hatzbani River will be seen as a basic violation of the status quo, and will obligate Israel to extract the full cost, primarily for Syria. Israel cannot come out against Lebanon or Hezbollah only. Only coordinated action against the pumping installations and against the Syrian forces in Lebanon will give the Israeli message the validity needed to maintain the deterrent capability, which is the only way to restore calm in this region. A political solution in the form of a water-sharing agreement will prompt additional violations of the status quo and more Lebanese-Syrian provocations.

It is worthwhile remembering that in the Middle East, determination is the name of the game, especially when confronting regimes like the Syrian one. The free world learned this very well on September 11, 2001. Have we also learned this lesson?

This article was originally published in ha'aretz on October 8, 2002

 

Home | Worthwhile Reading | Cartoons | Videos | Selected Quotes | Links | Contact us

Dr. Mordechai Kedar

Department of Arabic and research associate of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
Bar-Ilan University
Israel

Mordechai Kedar's Archive:

I believe Arafat

Nullification of citizenship of Israeli Arabs